Will there be a recession in 2023?
08/19/2023 •
Likely not. — The majority of viewpoints from economists and business research groups cite factors such as strong job growth, consumer spending, and actions by the Federal Reserve in suggesting a lower likelihood of a recession in 2023.
Stats
| 74% | 67 | |
| 20% | 18 | Bluesky |
| 3% | 3 | Hacker News |
| 2% | 2 | 4Chan |
| 49% | Neutral |
| 39% | Negative |
| 12% | Positive |
| 61% | 😱 Fear |
| 18% | 😡 Anger |
| 12% | 😃 Joy |
| 9% | 😢 Sadness |
| 0% | 🥰 Love |
| 0% | 😯 Surprise |
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Story
- 58% of respondents in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics expected a recession to occur in 2023.
- The Conference Board, a business research group, initially predicted a recession to start in 2023 but has since lowered its probability to 25%. They anticipate continued expansion for this year and "modest, sub-par growth" in 2024.
- Fitch, an international credit rating agency, projects that factors like tighter credit conditions, weakening business investment, and a consumption slowdown may result in a mild recession in the US during Q4/23 and Q1/24. They anticipate real GDP growth to be just 0.5% in 2024.
- The yield curve inversion predicted a recession to start in late 2023 or early 2024.
- Some economists who previously predicted a recession for 2023 have now revised their forecasts and expect continued economic expansion this year, with modest growth anticipated in 2024.
- Some economists point to surveys and leading indicators as signs pointing towards a high probability of a recession in late 2023 or early 2024.
- Several economists have changed their forecasts, suggesting a recession is less likely in 2023 due to positive economic indicators such as strong job growth and consumer spending.
- The Federal Reserve's efforts in combating inflation by raising interest rates is believed by some to potentially slow down the economy too much, which might trigger a recession.
- Some individuals express skepticism about the potential of a recession in 2023, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding economic predictions.
- Others believe that political factors are irrelevant and that a recession in 2023 is likely based on substantial evidence.